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Economic Comparison

Contents

  • 1 Debt

    • 1.1 Control of Congress

    • 1.2 State Comparison

    • 1.3 President

      • 1.3.1 Debt Limit

  • 2 Deficits

    • 2.1 Control of Congress

  • 3 Employment

    • 3.1 Unemployment Rate

      • 3.1.1 State Comparison

    • 3.2 Total Employment

      • 3.2.1 Control of Congress

    • 3.3 Employment-Population Ratio

      • 3.3.1 Control of Congress

      • 3.3.2 State Comparison

  • 4 Median Income

    • 4.1 Control of Congress

    • 4.2 State Comparison

  • 5 Income Equality

    • 5.1 Control of Congress

    • 5.2 State Comparison

  • 6 Reasons for Increased Spending/Debt

    • 6.1 2008 Bailouts

    • 6.2 2008 Stimulus

    • 6.3 Democrats Overrode Bush's Vetoes

    • 6.4 2009 Obama Stimulus

    • 6.5 2009 Omnibus

    • 6.6 2010 Obamacare

  • 7 Wealth

    • 7.1 Counties

  • 8 Sources

 

The following is an objective analysis of Republicans and Democrats when it comes to management of the economy, including the U.S. budget. As a general rule Republican states have better employment, income equality, and debt but Democrat states have better median income. Debt, deficits, employment, income equality, and median incomes have all done better when Republicans ran Congress from 1995-2006 than when Democrats ran Congress from 2007-10.

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For purposes of conciseness, only the top 20 states are shown for state comparisons, see main articles for full rankings. Also, there were several major changes in control of Congress from 1990-2015. In the 1994 elections Republicans took control of the 104th Congress, and were seated on January 3rd, 1995. In the 2000 elections Democrats gained control of the Senate during the 107th Congress when James Jeffords switched parties, and were seated on January 3rd, 2001. In the 2002 elections Republicans regained control of the 108th Congress and were seated on January 3rd, 2003. In the 2006 elections Democrats took control of the 110th Congress and were seated on January 3rd, 2007. In the 2010 elections Republicans took control of the House for the 112th Congress and were seated on January 3rd, 2011.

 

As a general rule, budgets are passed by the previous year's Congress. For example, the 1993-94 Democratic Congress passed the 1995 budget because it was in office until January 3rd, 1995. The 2005-06 Republican Congress passed the 2007 budget because it was in office until January 3rd, 2007. For this reason, when charting issues specific to the budget such as debt or deficits, years are marked one year later than when Congress changed, to reflect which party passed that year's budget. However, when charting issues specific to legislation passed (such as employment) the regular years are used, to reflect which party was passing that year's legislation.

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Debt

Control of Congress

 

The debt grew far slower when Republicans ran Congress than when Democrats were in charge, growing 4.11 times as fast under the Democrat Congress from 2007 to 2010 as the Republican Congress from 1995 to 2006.

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  • 1995-2006 Republican Congress: Debt grew from $4.798 to $8.677 trillion in 12 years, an average of $323.26 billion per year. (1/3/1995 to 1/3/2007)

  • 2007-2010 Democrat Congress: Debt grew from $8.677 to $14.000 trillion in 4 years, an average of $1,330.75 billion per year. (1/3/2007 to 1/3/2011)

  • 2011-2014 Split Congress: Debt grew from $14.000 trillion to $17.536 trillion in 3.5 years, an average of $1,035.00 billion per year. (1/3/2011 to 6/13/2014).

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However, this pattern is consistent throughout history, and not confined to only the past two decades. Debt dropped under the Republican Congress from 1900-10, but skyrocketed under Democrats from 1911-18, and then dropped under Republicans from 1919-30. Debt increased under the long period of Democratic control of Congress from 1931-94 but then dropped, as previously mentioned, once Republicans took control of Congress from 1995-2006. This pattern is evident from over a century of history; debt consistently drops when Republicans run Congress and increases once Democrats gain control.

 

State Comparison

States with the lowest debt per capita tend to be Republican states. State debt is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau[2] as are population totals.[3] The following is a ranking of states by debt per capita, current as of 2013 (the most recent year for state debt data), their Democratic advantage according to Gallup,[4]Representatives/Senators in Congress by party,[5] party breakdown in the state legislature,[6] and how they voted in the 2012 presidential election.[7] Ultimately 16 of the 20 states with lowest debt per capita had Republican advantages according to Gallup polling, while 16 of the 20 states with highest debt per capita had Democratic advantages. 

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Federal debt as a percentage of GDP from 1901-2010, color-coded by control of Congress/Presidency. Chart by VisionThing.[1]

President

Obama has grown the debt over twice as fast as Bush, $7 trillion in just five years. To quote CBS, “The National Debt has now increased more during President Obama's three years and two months in office than it did during 8 years of the George W. Bush presidency.”[8] According to the Debt to the Penny calculator at TreasuryDirect.gov, the public debt has grown 2.09 times as fast under Obama as it did under Bush, and 7.11 times as fast as it did under Clinton.[9]

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  • Bill Clinton: Debt grew from $4.411 to $5.728 trillion in 7.5 years, an average of $493.18 billion per year. (9/30/1993 to 1/20/2001)

  • George W. Bush: Debt grew from $5.728 to $10.627 trillion in 8 years, an average of $1,677.63 billion per year. (1/20/2001 to 1/20/2009)

  • Barack Obama: Debt grew from $10.627 to $17.536 trillion in 5.5 years, an average of $3,507.23 billion per year. (1/20/2009 to 6/13/2014)

 

Debt Limit

 

Back in 2006 when Bush was president, Obama was happy to criticize Bush for raising the debt limit, saying:

 

“The fact that we're here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. Leadership means 'The buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America's debt limit."[10]”

 

But Obama went even farther in 2006, vowing not to increase the debt limit if elected. "America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America’s debt limit", Obama said. PolitiFact has correctly labeled this a Full Flop.[11]

 

Since then Obama has called for raising the debt limit multiple times without any spending cuts whatsoever.[12] In fact Obama has raised the debt limit more than any other president in history.[13]

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Deficits

Control of Congress

 

Obama early in 2009 promised to cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term.[14] In fact the deficit skyrocketed, more than doubling, during that time. Obama on the campaign trail was happy to criticize Bush for increasing the debt, even though the largest spending increase came from the 2008 budget after Democrats controlled Congress at the end of Bush's term, saying:

 

“The problem is that the way Bush has done it over the last eight years, is to take out a credit card from the Bank of China in the name of our children, driving up our national debt from $5 trillion for the first forty-two presidents – number forty-three added $4 trillion all by his lonesome – so that we now have over $9 trillion of debt that we’re going to have to pay back - $30,000 for every man, woman and child. That’s irresponsible. It’s unpatriotic!"[15]”

 

The 2006 Republican Congress was in office until January 2007, and passed the 2007 budget. Similarly, the Democrat 111th Congress was in office until January 2011 and passed the 2011 budget.[16]

Deficits were dropping under the Republicans who ran Congress until the 2008 budget, the first one passed by a Democrat Congress following their victories in the 2006 elections. Under George W. Bush, the highest deficit was $458.6 billion and under a Republican Congress never more than $412.7 billion. Democrats tripled the deficit in 2009 to $1,412.7 billion. The only reason the deficit dropped in 2013 was the government shutdown resulting from Republicans who refused to write Obama the blank check he wanted.[17] Government spending has declined as the result of a government shutdown under

 

Obama, just as it did after Republicans shut down government under Bill Clinton.

The last deficit passed by a fully Republican Congress was the 2007 deficit of $160.7 billion. Obama in 2009 increased that over 800% to $1,412.7 billion.[16] Obama didn't just break this promise, he obliterated it. To quote Timothy Lee of the Center for Individual Freedom,

 

“Thus, the 'halved' 2013 deficit over which Obama brags is larger than the largest deficit of any president who preceded him. Even at the height of World War II in 1943, the deficit only reached $737 billion in current dollars. Even excluding the 2009 deficit, which Obama’s dwindling number of shock troops falsely attribute entirely to George W. Bush, that leaves Obama with a four-year average deficit of $1.153 trillion. Include the 2009 deficit, two-thirds of which occurred after he was inaugurated, and his average rises to $1.231 trillion. To provide additional context, the eight-year average Bush deficit that Obama labeled 'unpatriotic' was just $297 billion. Even being charitable to Obama by removing the 2001 budget surplus from Bush’s tally and adding the entire 2009 deficit to it, he still averaged just $511 billion. In other words, even in its most unfairly charitable light, Obama’s average deficit is more than double that of his all-purpose scapegoat predecessor."[15]

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As pointed out by PolitiFact and the Washington Post Fact Checker, Obama voted for the same spending he attempts to blame on George W. Bush.[18] But even the fact checkers overlook that spending blamed on Bush the last two years was actually passed by a Democratic Congress (including Obama), and that the Democrats overrode Bush's vetoes on hundreds of billions of dollars in spending he didn't approve of.

 

In actuality, deficits were dropping under the Republicans who ran Congress until the 2008 budget, the first one passed by a Democrat Congress following their victories in the 2006 elections. The 2006 Republican Congress was in office until January 2007, and passed the 2007 budget. Similarly, the Democrat 111th Congress was in office until January 2011 and passed the 2011 budget.[16]

 

Under George W. Bush, the highest deficit was $458.6 billion and under a Republican Congress never more than $412.7 billion. Democrats tripled the deficit in 2009 to $1,412.7 billion. The only reason the deficit dropped in 2013 was the government shutdown resulting from Republicans who refused to write Obama the blank check he wanted.[19] Government spending has declined as the result of a government shutdown under Obama, just as it did after Republicans shut down government under Bill Clinton.

 

Employment

Unemployment Rate

State Comparison

 

Main article: State Unemployment Rates

States with the lowest unemployment rates tend to be Republican states.[20] The following are the top 10 states for unemployment rate, current as of November 2014, their Democratic advantage according to Gallup,[21] Representatives/Senators in Congress by party,[22] party breakdown in the state legislature,[23] and how they voted in the 2012 presidential election.[24] Ultimately 14 of the 20 states with lowest unemployment rates had Republican advantages according to Gallup polling.

 

Determination of whether a state is Republican or Democrat is based solely on the Gallup data (Democrat Advantage), the state's ratios for Congress, the state legislature, and 2012 presidential election results are merely provided for informational purposes. For example, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Virginia all voted for Obama in 2012 but Gallup polling reveals they are primarily Republican, and thus they are labeled Republican here, particularly since their legislative elections reveal them to be Republican. On the other hand Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have elected more Republicans at both the state and federal levels than Democrats, but are labeled as Democrat states because Gallup polling shows they have Democrat Advantages. States which could be classified as definite swing states include Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

NOTES:

  • Nebraska's state legislature is Nonpartisan/Unicameral and thus party breakdown cannot be provided, this is indicated by "NP".

  • Since Independents overwhelmingly caucus as Democrats, they were classified as Democrats when counting Congress/State Legislature ratios. The only state really affected by this was Vermont which had 11 Independents at the state level and 1 at the federal level.

  • A "T" at the end of a rank indicates a tie between states for that rank.

Total Employment

Control of Congress

Total employment fared far better when Republicans ran Congress from 1995-2000 and 2003-06 than periods when Democrats did, particularly 2007-10, although 1990-94 was not that bad a stretch by Democrats since it ended on a positive note.[25] Also provided is historical labor force data for additional context.

To be precise, total employment grew 0.71% per year over 3 years under the Democrat Congress budgets of 1979-81, grew 2.37% per year over 6 years under the split Congress budgets of 1982-87, grew 1.24% per year over 8 years under the Democrat Congress budgets of 1988-95, grew 1.46% per year over 6 years under the Republican Congress budgets of 1997-2002, grew 0.87% per year over 2 years under the split Congress budgets of 2003-04, grew 1.42% per year over 4 years under the Republican Congress budgets of 2004-08, dropped 0.92% under the Democrat Congress budgets of 2008-11, and rose 1.55% per year over 3 years under the split Congress budgets of 2012-14.

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U.S. total employment and labor force from 1978-2014, color-coded by control of Congress/Presidency.[25]

Sources

  1. Historical Tables. The White House Office of Management and Budget. <http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/historicals> Budget FY 2015 – Table 5.1 – Budget Authority by Function and Subfunction – 1976-2019 (2015).
    U.S. Government Printing Office. <http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/search/pagedetails.action?granuleId=BUDGET-2015-TAB-5-1&packageId=BUDGET-2015-TAB&fromBrowse=true>

  2. American FactFinder (2013). 2013 Annual Survey of State Finances. United States Census Bureau. <https://www.census.gov/govs/state/>

  3. United States Census Bureau (2013). Population Estimates - State Totals: Vintage 2013. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  4. Saad, L. (2014, January 29). Not as Many U.S. States Lean Democratic in 2013. Gallup. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/167030/not-states-lean-democratic-2013.aspx>

  5. Members of Congress: North Dakota. GovTrack.us. <https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/ND>

  6. Legislative Control 2015. StateScape. <http://www.statescape.com/resources/partysplits/partysplits.aspx>

  7. 2012 Presidential Race. NBC News. <http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president>

  8. Knoller, M. (2012, March 19). National Debt Has Increased More Under Obama than Under Bush. CBS News. <http://www.cbsnews.com/news/national-debt-has-increased-more-under-obama-than-under-bush>

  9. The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt. <http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current>

  10. Jackson, D. (2011, November 6). Obama Once Opposed Lifting Debt Ceiling. USA Today. <http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/01/obama-once-opposed-lifting-debt-ceiling>

  11. Holan, A.D. (2011, April 29). Obama Regrets 2006 Vote Against Raising the Debt Limit. PolitiFact. <http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/apr/29/barack-obama/obama-regrets-2006-vote-against-raising-debt-limit>

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  15. Lee, T.H. (2013, October 10). Obama Tripled the Deficit, Now Claims He Cut it in Half. Center for Individual Freedom. <http://cfif.org/v/index.php/commentary/43/1991-obama-tripled-the-deficit-now-brags-he-cut-it-in-half>

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    Budget FY 2015 – Table 5.1 – Budget Authority by Function and Subfunction – 1976-2019 (2015). U.S. Government Printing Office. <http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/search/pagedetails.action?granuleId=BUDGET-2015-TAB-5-1&packageId=BUDGET-2015-TAB&fromBrowse=true>

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